This is homework for me for '15. I need to review this one over and over as it does not sink in so well.
The Kelly Criterion.
The half Kelly compared to the Full Kelly.
Some links of info are too complex and some too focused on poker.
I like the background story here
http://home.williampoundstone.net/Kelly.htm
Kelly died tragically young, of a brain hemorrhage at the age of 41. He was by then the head of Bell Labs' information coding and programming department and the author of several patents. Kelly has one further claim to fame. In 1961 Kelly and colleague Carol Lochbaum demonstrated a new voice synthesis system by making a recording of their machine singing the song "Daisy Bell," better known as "Bicycle Built for Two."
It has to do with allocation and that as the odds change( subjective probabilities that get substituted for a frequency table) so should the bet. Here is the part that I need to review..
Full Kelly
the simple formula 2x the probability-1= the bet ( allocation)
the half Kelly
The half Kelly bet has some interesting mathematical properties. For risk management purposes, the nice property is that it cuts your risk of temporary loss (i.e., volatility) by a large amount while reducing your return expectation only a little. The other important property of the half Kelly bet is that it gives a large margin of safety in the risk estimate. If you are off by a factor of two on your risk of loss estimate, a full Kelly bet will reduce your return expectation to zero. But a half Kelly bet will leave you with 2/3 of the return expectation. Not surprisingly, underbetting is far, far safer than overbetting.
With the full Kelly bet, your probability of temporary loss is a linear function of the amount of loss. For example, you stand a 90% chance of losing 10%, an 80% chance of losing 20%, a 50% chance of losing 50%, etc. Not many investors are comfortable with the prospect of a 50% probability of losing 50% of their money. With the half Kelly bet, your probability of temporary loss is a quadratic function of the amount of loss. For example, you stand a 81% chance of losing 10%, a 64% chance of losing 20%, a 25% chance of losing 50%, etc.
Your expected gain with the half Kelly bet is reduced by 25%. For example, if your expected gain is 40% with the full Kelly, it is 30% with the half Kelly, if your expected gain is 30% with the full Kelly, it is 22.5% with the half Kelly, and if your expected gain is 10% with the full Kelly, it is 7.5% with the half Kelly.
Commentary; Don't beat yourself up if your allocation to a bet was NOT set for the maximal gain ( Full Kelly) as a half Kelly is pretty darn good.:-)
It's been a good yr. since I thought I had need of this info, so thats a good feeling also.
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?_mc=sm_eet&doc_id=1324982&image_number=1
Commentary, consider that wearables are one subset of the IoT. If you pass the processed sensor data to bigger compute power in the data centers something will happen. Value may be created for the ecosystem and for the user. Those who can do this, ie they have the platforms in place, will have the more interesting wearables.
Commentary, consider that wearables are one subset of the IoT. If you pass the processed sensor data to bigger compute power in the data centers something will happen. Value may be created for the ecosystem and for the user. Those who can do this, ie they have the platforms in place, will have the more interesting wearables.
Slideshow
10 Reasons Why Analytics Are Vital to the Internet of Things
This year has seen the software at the very highest point in the Internet of Things stack -- analytics -- becoming tightly coupled with the embedded devices at the edge of the network, leading to many different approaches and providers. Being able to monitor and use the data that comes from the Internet of Things is a huge potential challenge with different providers using different architectures and approaches, and different chip and equipment vendors teaming up in a range of different ways.
Click on the image below to begin the slideshow.
Click on the image below to begin the slideshow.
Wind River at the edge enables Intel analytics
Intel's analytics have previously only really been available from its Edison microcontroller nodes, but it is now opening up with the launch of Wind River's Edge server. The Wind River Edge Management System platform is designed to integrate with analytics platforms, such as Intel Analytics, and is also open on the device side with the used agent technology. It has been integrated with the WR IDP/Intel Gateway platform (Moon Island) and is designed to be easily extended to support many other devices meeting similar requirements. The agent technology has already been ported to various Intel Galileo and Arduino developer kits, as well.
Monday, December 29, 2014
Homework on the wearable Rings....
We've already seen rings that unlock doors and mobile devices, show thetime, act as a mouse or display notifications from a connected mobile
A gesture ring.
by Yuki Kai on 2014.10.3
We've already seen rings that unlock doors and mobile devices, show thetime, act as a mouse or display notifications from a connected mobile
A gesture ring.
the Ring from California-based Logbar aims to take finger wagging to the next level. Featuring Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) connectivity, the Ring is designed to allow control of mobile devices and home appliances, make electronic payments and even type text in mid air with a wave of a finger.
Designed to be worn on the index finger, motion sensors embedded within the Ring identify the gesture being made by said finger once the device is activated by tapping the touch sensor on the outer edge of the ring. This allows the wearer to perform everything from simple up and down motions to change the volume of a paired device, to writing letters in the air to compose text messages. Using GPS and Apple's iBeacon technology, the Ring can also be used to make payments at stores and restaurants with a tick gesture.
Logbar is also establishing a "Ring Store" that will house apps compatible with the device, with the company releasing an open API/SDK to encourage third parties to develop apps for the device.
Logbar raised 880,998.00 on kickstarter....
http://logbar.jp/news/
Pretty darn cool. They are in Japan.
Third time’s the charm? Japan’s Logbar to ship Ring control device on October 9
by Yuki Kai on 2014.10.3
Ring is a device worn on a finger that gives users the ability to control and interact with other devices. Logbar, the company behind the device, announced that it will start shipping the Ring on October 9.
See also:
The company attracted some $880,000 in funding from more than 5,000 backers via aKickstarter campaign. They had planned to start shipping the device in July, but postponed the date to August. The schedule was postponed once again to September as they changed the device’s design and added a button.
The company’s e-mail to the Kickstarter campaign backers on September 29 states that the shipping date is now set for October 9. However, the date is the actual shipping day, so the Ring will probably reach the backers’ fingers by late October.
Google X’s Astro Teller Says Wearables Still Need A Killer App
Back in November, I had a chance to visit Google’s Mountain View headquarters to chat with Astro Teller, the head of Google X’s so-called “moonshot” projects, about the past, present, and future of wearables.
I opened the interview with a blunt question: “Which do you want to talk about first, the wrist or glasses?” He immediately called me out: “That presupposes that the only interesting things we’re working on are watches and glasses.”
Teller made it clear that just because Android Wear and Google Glass are prominent in Google’s public efforts, they’re not the only thing the search giant is looking at when it thinks of putting gadgets on our bodies.
“[Humans] have spent that last several thousand years working on wearbles. We’ve got rings, glasses, we wear things for armor, for protection from the elements, to signal our status to other people. And we’re going to co-opt a lot of those things, where wearables are going to end up being the interface between us in the world,” he told me during our 30 minute chat.
Right on the spot. Myopia of the status quo has many NOT SEEING ANY VALUE in a wearable. The right wearable with apps is seamless, no screen to take you away from people
As a part owner of QUIK's biz I will be very happy with any and all wearables that we are in. Some may be low volume, some more, one of them may morph into THE device.
One interesting line of research Google has looked at includes using rings to “train” our brains for things like navigation using slight vibrations whenever you face a certain direction.
Right on the spot. Myopia of the status quo has many NOT SEEING ANY VALUE in a wearable. The right wearable with apps is seamless, no screen to take you away from people
As a part owner of QUIK's biz I will be very happy with any and all wearables that we are in. Some may be low volume, some more, one of them may morph into THE device.
One interesting line of research Google has looked at includes using rings to “train” our brains for things like navigation using slight vibrations whenever you face a certain direction.
I see the current wearables ecosystem as a spectrum. At one end, there’s single-purpose gadgets that are essentially pedometers, heart rate trackers, and blood-oxygen sensors that have existed for decades — only now, they’re sending all that data to the cloud via Bluetooth connections to our smartphones. At the other end, there’s Google Glass, Android Wear, the Apple Watch, and their ilk: general-purpose devices that Google has said could one day replace the metal and glass slabs we keep in our pockets.
When I asked Teller where he thinks the successful wearables of the future will fall on that spectrum, he said that there’s likely going to be an evolution in the space from one use case that initially takes off to more general-purpose devices in the years to come.
He compared the process to the decades-long adoption of desktop computing. “VisiCalc and WordPerfect were the killer apps of their day, but Google and Facebook make them look small in comparison.” The way Teller sees it, those applications were what made computers a reasonable purchase for the first tens of millions of customers — but you couldn’t look at them and predict the applications valuable to billions today.
So what are the Visicalc and Wordperfect of wearables? Teller says that there’s a few uses that seem like they could bring in the mass of users necessary for wearables to become a meaningful platform. In the very near term, there’s fitness and health: from fitness trackers to the fashion-focuses bands, every major player in wearables has at the very least included things like step-tracking or heart-rate measurement (with varying degrees of accuracy).
Fitness has the advantage of being something that becomes habitual: if exercise is a big portion of your life, you’ll keep using that smart band with some regularity. The biggest hurdle for this category is the tendency for people to try out gadgets like the Nike FuelBand or a Fitbit and one day decide to just leave it on the desk or in a drawer — it’s a category that’s in a constant struggle against human laziness.
Another option is information security and environmental personalization — in terms of both our physical and digital spaces.
“I think wearables in general have as their best calling, to better understand our current state and needs and to express those back to the world. It’s crazy that you have to tell your phone or your computer or your house or your car “It’s me!” hundreds of times a day. Wearables will solve that problem. They haven’t yet, but they will.”
Regarding the current appreciation (or, more accurately, lack thereof) of Google Glass in popular culture, Teller isn’t phased by the haters. “There’s about a 0% chance that in 10-20 years we don’t access our digital world through our glasses, but I would be shocked if we don’t also have watches,” he says, though he acknowledges that the consumer market might
not be where Google finds the killer app for its eye wear.
One interesting line of research Google has looked at includes using rings to “train” our brains for things like navigation using slight vibrations whenever you face a certain direction.
not be where Google finds the killer app for its eye wear.
One interesting line of research Google has looked at includes using rings to “train” our brains for things like navigation using slight vibrations whenever you face a certain direction.
Sunday, December 28, 2014
Best book I have read in the last 10 yrs?
It was more useful for me than the ones about W Buffet.
Though those were excellent.
This one
Kirkus Reviews called Good Ideas a "robust volume that brings new perspective to an old subject" and said of Johnson, "Throughout, his infectious enthusiasm and unyielding insight inspire and entertain."[14] The Sunday Telegraph said, "Like all good ideas, this book is bigger than the sum of its parts... Johnson enlivens his argument with stories and examples that bring personality and depth to his ideas, and make for an engaging read..."[15]
So I have read that book enough that I have chosen to use it as a sort of guidebook for the evolution of the Sensors, fusion, devices.
I use his phrases in this blog; adjacent possible, parts on the bench, coffee houses. Coral reefs?
They are used in his book because
Quick Logic TAG-N Wearble Sensor Hub for nRF51 Series
Feed the processed sensor data in a wearable to the bigger compute power available in the data centers to get you something back
http://www.nordicsemi.com/
Those are ecosystem items. QUIK is in the Coral reef of sensors and fusion and things are just as alive for them and everyone involved that it is an apt metaphor. We will get more in '15.
Where...Indoor location will be a LOT of fun to learn more about.
Is this priced into the stock currently? No.
What will it take? Someone bigger in the coral reef, a known name, here is a snip of text on coral reefs...
The islands and reefs in the Northwest beyond Kaui are too small (though Midway briefly had a dive tourism operation). As it turns out, they are virtually swarming with big fish compared to the main Hawaiian Islands. The most common big fish there is giant trevally (Caranx ignobilis), which reaches 1.7 meters in length (5 feet) and an impressive 68 kg (150 pounds) maximum. But there are also lots of sharks such as grey reef sharks and Galapagos sharks. These big predator fish are called “apex predators” because they are at the apex of the food chain. Amazingly, they compose around half of all the weight (“biomass”) of all the reef fish on these reefs (Birkeland and Friedlander, 2001).
Comes along and does something cool with the bits and parts that QUIK has in the ecosystem. The PEEL bit, or the TAG-N Wearble part. PEEL may take us into China one day. Noridic Tag-N all kinds of diverse objects are now possible. It's also the explanation, that as much as I want us to ramp into the Samsung ecosystem the coral reef is so rich that there is a lot of other stuff going on too.
Indoor location?
I track that one close as I can as it's BIGGER than most others. It's definitely a coral reef sort of ecosystem; Very few have ALL the bits and pieces it takes to get it done- there will be collaborations. It will be fun to read one day who QUIK has in the Indoor location application solution ecosystem. A complete solution here will include the
big predator fish are called “apex predators” because they are at the apex of the food chain. Amazingly, they compose around half of all the weight (“biomass”) of all the reef fish on these reefs (Birkeland and Friedlander, 2001).
biggest names in the business.
QUIK< thanks in advance for working overtime on Indoor location. The most accurate step counter is a nice building block for this, the new in elevator, climbing step context may help too.
It was more useful for me than the ones about W Buffet.
Though those were excellent.
This one
| Where Good Ideas Come From: The Natural History of Innovation | 2010 | ISBN 978-1-59448-771-2 | Innovation |
Kirkus Reviews called Good Ideas a "robust volume that brings new perspective to an old subject" and said of Johnson, "Throughout, his infectious enthusiasm and unyielding insight inspire and entertain."[14] The Sunday Telegraph said, "Like all good ideas, this book is bigger than the sum of its parts... Johnson enlivens his argument with stories and examples that bring personality and depth to his ideas, and make for an engaging read..."[15]
So I have read that book enough that I have chosen to use it as a sort of guidebook for the evolution of the Sensors, fusion, devices.
I use his phrases in this blog; adjacent possible, parts on the bench, coffee houses. Coral reefs?
They are used in his book because
Coral Reefs – An Important Part of Our Future
Spanish hogfish at reef.
If you have ever visited a coral reef, you probably were struck by its beauty, diversity, and many colorful inhabitants. Even though
coral reefs cover less than one percent of the ocean floor, they support an estimated 25 percent of all marine life, with more than 4,000 species of fish alone. In fact, coral reefs are some of the most diverse ecosystems in the world with thousands of species relying on reefs for survival.
They also serve as important sources of food, income, protection, and new medicines for mankind.
coral reefs cover less than one percent of the ocean floor, they support an estimated 25 percent of all marine life, with more than 4,000 species of fish alone. In fact, coral reefs are some of the most diverse ecosystems in the world with thousands of species relying on reefs for survival.
They also serve as important sources of food, income, protection, and new medicines for mankind.
helped me to consider ecology more, but it fits into this blog as to the concept of an ecosystem.The coral reef can be a model of the amazing diversity and abundance ( Yes, I read that book too) that happens when everything exists all in one place. Isolation doesn't get you much. Look at the new dots we have in our ecosystem...
PEEL, QUIK may not have known until a few wks after their mention that they would get 50 Million from Alibaba and speak clearly they are using the $$ for expansion into China and they want to be like Nest and control the home. Now they are in demand and will give one of the keynotes in Feb at MWC.
Nordic for the
I track that one close as I can as it's BIGGER than most others. It's definitely a coral reef sort of ecosystem; Very few have ALL the bits and pieces it takes to get it done- there will be collaborations. It will be fun to read one day who QUIK has in the Indoor location application solution ecosystem. A complete solution here will include the
big predator fish are called “apex predators” because they are at the apex of the food chain. Amazingly, they compose around half of all the weight (“biomass”) of all the reef fish on these reefs (Birkeland and Friedlander, 2001).
biggest names in the business.
QUIK< thanks in advance for working overtime on Indoor location. The most accurate step counter is a nice building block for this, the new in elevator, climbing step context may help too.
Dec 22..
Connected devices like wearables highlight the business challenges faced in rolling out the Internet of Things (IoT). This is Part I of a three part story.
http://chipdesignmag.com/sld/blog/2014/01/21/business-models-and-divisions-challenge-connected-world/
Will Tu, ARM (earlier comments): …developers are also doing more contextual awareness and predictive analysis. By contextual, I mean that a smart phone turns on when it’s being held next to my head. Predictive refers to what I’ll do next, i.e., having the software anticipate my next actions. Algorithms enable those capabilities.
Connected devices like wearables highlight the business challenges faced in rolling out the Internet of Things (IoT). This is Part I of a three part story.
http://chipdesignmag.com/sld/blog/2014/01/21/business-models-and-divisions-challenge-connected-world/
Will Tu, ARM (earlier comments): …developers are also doing more contextual awareness and predictive analysis. By contextual, I mean that a smart phone turns on when it’s being held next to my head. Predictive refers to what I’ll do next, i.e., having the software anticipate my next actions. Algorithms enable those capabilities.
Tu: Right now there is an explosion of sensor companies, but there will be a consolidation down the road. The question one should ask is if integration key to the sensor and IoT space. I don’t know. As a company, ARM would like to see a microcontroller (MCU) next to every sensor or sensor cluster – whether it is directly integrated to the sensor array or not. This is where scalability is important. Processing will need to be distributed; low power processing near the sensor with higher performance processing in the cloud. It is very difficult to put a high-powered fan based system in a sensor. It just won’t happen. You have to be very low power near the sensor.
The FFE
Word association game.... more contextual awareness and predictive analysis. QUIKs new algo team moving right along.
predictive analysis- track along here. A tiered intelligence with another layer above the FFE. You use what you have on your bench. QUIK can integrate what they have into an SoC. Revolutionary is what it will be.
The FFE
Word association game.... more contextual awareness and predictive analysis. QUIKs new algo team moving right along.
predictive analysis- track along here. A tiered intelligence with another layer above the FFE. You use what you have on your bench. QUIK can integrate what they have into an SoC. Revolutionary is what it will be.
Not only is the sensor node a very power constrained environment but it is also resource constrained, e.g., memory. That’s why embedded memory is critical – be it OTP or flash. In addition to low power, it is the cost of that memory is actually more influencing than the CPU.
Movea says...
1) What are the challenges of collecting and analyzing the data to find meaningful, actionable insights?
Soubeyrat: Data fusion is a critical enabling technology for pervasive context awareness on mobile devices. A wide variety of conditions could be detected:
- Device state: on the table; connected to a docking station; in hand; by an ear; in a backpack; in a pocket; in a purse; in a holster; in a shoulder bag
- User activity: standing, sitting, walking, or running; biking, riding, or skating; lying face up or down
- User environment: in a car, bus, train, or plane; in an elevator; going in/out the door
A good outline of QUIKs current algos for context?
The industry needs to come together to overcome several obstacles to enable pervasive applications and services for smarter devices. Among the challenges in developing a user-centric offering is an open framework supportive of data fusion, in which different players with very different skills can contribute to create smarter devices and apps. This open framework needs to multiplex many sources of data in vastly different formats across heterogeneous networks. The results can be tuned to new data types and new use cases, which is yet another challenge. Then one needs to accommodate different data rates, data synchronization, and data loss. Effective learning strategies need to be developed when no a priori knowledge exists about mappings from data to response. Finally, data and metadata representation standards need to be developed.
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