Saturday, February 14, 2015

Many yawn at wearables as nothing of any significance......

what is wrong that?

A few things.....

1.  They are part of an ecosystem now.  If you want to be a major player in the mobile device, you better offer all the mobile devices...smartphones and the smartwatch to go with it.  Maybe a pair of glasses.  You simply cannot afford to miss the next big thing.  Can't waste time, may not be THE device this gerneration but stay in the game till it is The device. THe Foxconn material lately shows how the mental model goes.  Its the same most everywhere else. They are far MORE important as a part of an ecosystem than the current TAM numbers.

2. No carrier qualifications.  The smartphones has to go to the FCC as QUIK mentioned in the cc.  So our flagship smartphone that has been pushed out has expanded to include the same maker's wearable platform- those devices can get to market sooner so now with every wearable we read about from a guy who also makes smartphones we will have to wonder if thats the Smartphone we will be in.

3. I actually like the idea that instead of a few devices controlling huge % of market share ( use Samsung Galaxy as a model for that) there may be 100s of wearable devices one day from many makers; some crazy thing that sells in low units, up to some fitness bands and smartwatches that sell in good numbers. Its more fun.

4. the reading of the adjacent possible, knowing the power numbers, the reference designs etc........QUIK will take a good chunk of the hubs in wearables......25-40% is my guess- my own subjective probability- I have reached this conclusion for wearables- not smartphones ( We need to see the S3 to figure that out more.)


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